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Coronavirus 11.0

Anthony Fauci, lead author and others wrote in an editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine, March 26th “if one assumes the number of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical impact of COVID 19 may be more akin to that of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of 0.1%)

That’s Dr. Fauci. In the New England Journal. Not me. It’s not an unreasonable assumption either. You can’t read that and still be as terrified of this as most people are.

It will be interesting to see how the media does or does not pick this up.

Further in this article, it’s estimated to spread from 1 person to 2 others not 10 (I saw that somewhere today) and continues to stratify in severity and death in specific populations, children being the least involved by an incredible margin. I think in the risk groups it’s worse than flu, in some groups way worse.

This is me. The overwhelming wave will fade, it’s bad now because of rapid spread and high severity and lethality in risk populations. I think any state that did the nuclear option for control will not see the spikes that NY did, including ours. Reports from CT hospitals are ok so far with lots of capacity and readiness for an onslaught that may or may not come. The next two weeks will tell. I predict rapid decline but not elimination in our state. I really don’t think CT will be overwhelmed.

Think of NY and cities like NY as people. They got coughed on directly from a variety of sources, countries where the epidemic was just beginning. Fashion week was in Milan (credit to my son John for pointing that out) many people went there and returned, add in all the people that travelled from other infected areas and that means a prolonged exposure. There were no interventions in place prior so they had no chance. They do now once the wave passes. Their case burden to start had to be higher than anywhere else explaining their huge numbers. Other cities will be hot spots and concentrating resources to them is critical.