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Coronavirus 4.0

The epidemic is evolving and following a pattern of spread similar to when the new flu virus (at the time) H1N1 hit in 2009 though so far it is nowhere near as prevalent. Also that illness started in Mexico on our own continent. The issue will be if sustained transmission occurs in communities. The first case of that type was reported yesterday. There are several factors working in our favor. First, the US is out ahead of this, second its starting late in the flu season not in October like H1N1 did. Third, they are rapidly developing treatments and vaccine strategies.

There is a remote possibility though that this virus is more wide spread in the US than we think. I say that because we have had many people return to the US from zones of concern and the symptoms can be so mild as to avoid even thinking testing is warranted. The CDC will start more extensive testing in certain cities and we will get a better idea of the true scope of illness. Remember though that like the flu almost everyone fights this off very well. So even if it becomes wide spread the scope of mostly mild disease is reassuring. In 2009 we did have to close schools and take other precautions but overall it presented very much like the typical flu. This is in no way trying to minimize the risk as the flu is very bad every year, So far in the US the newest stats are 29 Million cases, 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths. An average year to date. Sobering, but happens every year.

We will try to keep these posts updated as changes occur in this rapidly changing situation